Buy The Numbers

Or don't. I don't.

Spencer Ackerman has some things to say about Petraeus's methodology, his numbers, possible reasons why those numbers differ from the GAO's, etc.

Ackerman is right to ask the questions about the numbers, but regarding the methodology, there's only one significant fact: it's a secret. That's right. Petraeus tells us, "Two US intelligence agencies recently reviewed our methodology, and they concluded that the data we produce is the most accurate and authoritative in Iraq."

OK. What methodology? Which agencies? Simple questions, right? Hard to argue that that much is a matter of national security. Why shouldn't we get to know the answers?

Government, like warfighting, is not a science in the usual sense of the term. But when they use statistical methods to gather information that supports one or another course of action in a war, the public has a right to know what those methods are, and what numbers are cranked through those methods. In that one sense, government, using statistics, is a science: one should be given enough information to reproduce the results or challenge them. That has always been the nature of science. And writers as far back as Thomas Jefferson have noticed the similarity, between science and an open society with a representative government, of openness of discussion and the requirement of reproducibility imposed on arguments. In both, you must show your work.

In this case, it's worse than that, though. Not only is Petraeus saying, "trust us," but the government whose position he is advocating... face it, his is a political errand, not a military one... has given us every reason not to trust them.

I urge you: Do it by the numbers, but don't buy the numbers being sold by the Bush administration through Gen. Petraeus. Are they right? wrong? Who knows! But absent our ability to confirm them independently, they have the same credibility as, say, lumber companies' position papers regarding forest conservation, oil companies' statements about global warming, etc. Purchase your numbers only from a reputable source, and check them yourself if possible.